Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
